Children in more danger from lockdown than Covid19

“…benefits [of lockdown], however, are overshadowed by the negative consequences of the lockdown. First and foremost is the direct impact on their health. Emergency departments in the UK experienced unprecedented reductions of >50% in attendances during lockdown. [8] In Scotland, children’s emergency department attendances fell proportionally more than any other age-group.  This raises concerns that children with critical illnesses were not accessing health services on time and, therefore, suffering potentially avoidable harm.

 

60% of paediatricians responded within 7 days and, and 241 (32%) of 752 emergency department paediatricians had witnessed delayed presentations. Free text responses revealed diabetes mellitus (new diagnosis/diabetic ketoacidosis) as by far the most common delayed presentation, followed by delayed presentations of sepsis and new cancer diagnoses.

 

There were also nine deaths, resulting mainly from sepsis and malignancy, where delayed presentation was considered by the reporting paediatrician to be a significant contributing factor – higher than the total number of childhood covid-19 deaths reported over the same period in England.

Lockdown measures reduced the risk of covid-19, but had unintended consequences for children

Sunetra Gupta on unprofessional conduct of pro-lockdown scientists

Sunetra Gupta, founding signatory of the Great Barrington Declaration, wrote for the Daily Mail. Here is an edited set of excerpts.

I was utterly unprepared for the onslaught of insults, personal criticism, intimidation and threats that met our proposal. The level of vitriol and hostility, not just from members of the public online but from journalists and academics, has horrified me.

… Covid-19 is not a political phenomenon. It is a public health issue — indeed, it is one so serious that the response to it has already led to a humanitarian crisis. So I have been aghast to see a political rift open up, with outright abuse meted out to those who, like me, question the orthodoxy.

That is why I have found it so frustrating how, in recent weeks, proponents of lockdown policies have seemed intent on shutting down debate rather than promoting reasoned discussion.

 

It is perplexing to me that so many refuse even to consider the potential benefits of allowing non-vulnerable citizens, such as the young, to go about their lives and risk infection, when in doing so they would build up herd immunity and thereby protect the lives of vulnerable citizens.

 

Yet rather than engage in serious, rational discussion with us, our critics have dismissed our ideas as ‘pixie dust’ and ‘wishful thinking’.

This refusal to cherish the value of the scientific method strikes at the heart of everything I, as a scientist, hold dear. To me, the reasoned exchange of ideas is the basis of civilised society.

 

So I was left stunned after being invited on to a mid-morning radio programme recently, only for a producer to warn me minutes before we went on air that I was not to mention the Great Barrington Declaration. The producer repeated the warning and indicated that this was an instruction from a senior broadcasting executive.

I demanded an explanation and, with seconds to go, was told that the public wouldn’t be familiar with the meaning of the phrase ‘Great Barrington Declaration’.

 

And this was not an isolated experience. A few days later, another national radio station approached my office to set up an interview, then withdrew the invitation. They felt, on reflection, that giving airtime to me would ‘not be in the national interest’.

 

But the Great Barrington Declaration represents a heartfelt attempt by a group of academics with decades of experience in this field to limit the harm of lockdown. I cannot conceive how anyone can construe this as ‘against the national interest’.

 

Moreover, matters certainly are not helped by outlets such as The Guardian, which has repeatedly published opinion pieces making factually incorrect and scientifically flawed statements, as well as borderline defamatory comments about me, while refusing to give our side of the debate an opportunity to present our view.

 

I am surprised, given the importance of the issues at stake — not least the principle of fair, balanced journalism — that The Guardian would not want to present all the evidence to its readers. After all, how else are we to encourage proper, frank debate about the science?

 

On social media, meanwhile, much of the discourse has lacked any decorum whatsoever.

 

I have all but stopped using Twitter, but I am aware that a number of academics have taken to using it to make personal attacks on my character, while my work is dismissed as ‘pseudo- science’. Depressingly, our critics have also taken to ridiculing the Great Barrington Declaration as ‘fringe’ and ‘dangerous’.

 

But ‘fringe’ is a ridiculous word, implying that only mainstream science matters. If that were the case, science would stagnate. And dismissing us as ‘dangerous’ is equally unhelpful, not least because it is an inflammatory, emotional term charged with implications of irresponsibility. When it is hurled around by people with influence, it becomes toxic.

 

But this pandemic is an international crisis. To shut down the discussion with abuse and smears — that is truly dangerous.

Yet of all the criticisms flung at us, the one I find most upsetting is the accusation that we are indulging in ‘policy-based evidence-making’ — in other words, drumming up facts to fit our ideological agenda.

 

I have been accused of not having the right expertise, of being a ‘theoretical’ epidemiologist with her head in the clouds. In fact, within my research group, we have a thriving laboratory that was one of the first to develop an antibody test for the coronavirus.

Clearly, none of us anticipated such a vitriolic response.

 

The abuse that has followed has been nothing short of shameful.

But rest assured. Whatever they throw at us, it won’t do anything to sway me — or my colleagues — from the principles that sit behind what we wrote.

Professor Sunetra Gupta is an infectious disease epidemiologist and a professor of theoretical epidemiology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8899277/Professor-Sunetra-Gupta-reveals-crisis-ruthlessly-weaponised.html

Coronavirus T-cell immunity lasts at least six months even when antibodies are undetectable

There was widespread alarmist media coverage in July and again in October of research by Kings College and Imperial College respectively of research showing anti-body reaction to covid19 disappeared within as short as time as a few weeks (average 2-3 months).

Both researchers obliged media by saying the results showed that  controversial ‘herd immunity’ concept could not work.

But a new study by University of Birmingham and Public Health England, shows memory T-cells were present in all 100 asymptomatic non-hospitalised patients they tested, meaning coronavirus patients have cellular immunity for at least six months after infection even when antibodies are undetectable.

It suggests that more people may have had Covid than previously thought but have lost their antibody response, meaning it would not show up in surveillance testing.

Previous studies have shown that Sars – a very similar virus to coronavirus – can induce a T-cell response that lasts 10 years, but it was unknown whether a cellular response also happened in Covid.

Dr Shamez Ladhani, consultant epidemiologist at PHE and the study’s author, said: “Cellular immunity is a complex but potentially very significant piece of the Covid-19 puzzle.

“Early results show that T-cell responses may outlast the initial antibody response, which could have a significant impact on Covid vaccine development and immunity research.”

Professor Paul Moss, the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium lead, of the University of Birmingham, said it was the first study in the world “to show robust cellular immunity remains at six months after infection in individuals who experienced either mild/moderate or asymptomatic Covid-19. Six months is an early time point, and cells can live for a very long time.”

Elimination proponent admits it means no return to normal

An early proponent of New Zealand’s elimination strategy has now admitted that the approach means the country cannot go back to normal.
In early interviews Souxsie Wiles claimed to be “excited” about vaccines for Covid19, but now says the early ones are unlikely to prevent death or transmission (see BMJ assessment of lead vaccines).
Wiles she says this is particularly problematic for New Zealand because it “stamped out” Covid19. A partially effective vaccine would not allow us to open borders and go back to normal (we presume she means that covid19 would re-enter the country and/or resume transmission).
Wiles has therefore clarified that it is New Zealand’s strategy which means New Zealand can not go back to normal.
This will be surprising and unpleasant news to most citizens. Wiles embraced the strategy and the government’s plan to eliminate and wait for a vaccine.
This is precisely the dilemma that Covid Plan B predicted would happen, and why we opposed the elimination and lockdown strategy.
We said that if elimination was the goal, our quandary was that we could not have a situation where covid19 was in transmission. Which meant we had to wait until a totally effective vaccine was available. We doubted that such a vaccine would be ready even in 2021.
In her Stuff article, Wiles seems to be happy with the idea that this isolation is the new normal. We are not.
 

Lead ‘ vaccine’ trials not designing actual vaccines

The ‘vaccines’ being prepared for covid19 won’t do what people (and Governments and media) expect of a vaccine.

Peter Doshi, Associate Editor of the BMJ has analysed the lead candidates and concludes:

“None of the trials currently under way are designed to detect a reduction in any serious outcome such as hospital admissions, use of intensive care, or deaths. Nor are the vaccines being studied to determine whether they can interrupt transmission of the virus.”
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037

The world has bet the farm on vaccines as the solution to the pandemic, but the trials are not focused on answering the questions many might assume they are. Peter Doshi reports As phase III trials of covid-19…
The world has bet the farm on vaccines as the solution to the pandemic, but the trials are not focused on answering the questions many might assume they are. Peter Doshi reports As phase III trials of covid-19 vaccines reach their target enrolments, officials have been trying to project calm. The US…

A devastating critique of the ten worst data failures of Covid19

Data has been the most disappointing factor about humanity’s response to Covid19.

It has been faulty, incomplete, inconsistent, skewed by design, and often, invented (ie. models).

It seems like most of the disputes over how dangerous Covid19 is, and what to do about it, hinge on data that is unreliable. Our ability to interrogate data far outstrips the quality of the data.

It’s not been a flattering picture for the future, of the capabilities of our modern age.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/…/The-ten-worst-Covid-data-fail…

Throughout the pandemic, the government and its scientific advisers have made constant predictions, projections and illustrations regarding the behaviour of Covid-19. Their figures are never revisited as the Covid narrative unfolds, which means we are not given an idea of the error margin….

How have dire predictions for Sweden panned out?

An article in the NZ Herald on May 27, 2020 predicted Sweden would have 56,000 more COVID-19 deaths and had made “a fatal mistake”. At the time of publishing Sweden had experienced 4408 deaths.

So, how’s that prediction looking five months on?

It was wrong. The deaths have not been 56,000, but as at 23 October, 5,933.

In the past five months a further 1525 people sadly died.

Daily deaths plateaued in July, and over the following three months (23 July to 23 i.e., 92 days) 202 people – an average of just over 2 a day – have died. To put that into perspective, ca. 246 people die every day in Sweden; 77 from cardiovascular disease (Sweden’s biggest killer).

Despite an upsurge in cases (starting ca. 4th September) that now matches the peak of cases recorded in June 2020,  the average daily death since 4 September has been 1.8 deaths per day. Over the last seven days, (16 to 23 October) the daily death rate was 0.57.

Data taken from:

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden?country=~SWE

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

NZ data – not many tested, not many positives

A sense of perspective on NZ Covid data

(from Jefferies et al. Lancet paper. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30225-5/fulltext)

Outer circle here is proportional to NZ population, grey is those tested. Blue is those who tested positive. Hospitalised and ICU cases too small to print.

Zeroing on test positive cases (blue circle above, now below), it is not possible from paper to know how many deaths actually went to ICU, so these cells may not be mutually exclusive…

Experts changing their minds as facts against Covid19 mount

Abstract

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic in 2020. In response, most countries in the world implemented lockdowns, restricting their population’s movements, work, education, gatherings, and general activities in attempt to ‘flatten the curve’ of COVID-19 cases. The public health goal of lockdowns was to save the population from COVID-19 cases and deaths, and to prevent overwhelming health care systems with COVID-19 patients. In this narrative review I explain why I changed my mind about supporting lockdowns. First, I explain how the initial modeling predictions induced fear and crowd-effects [i.e., groupthink]. Second, I summarize important information that has emerged relevant to the modeling, including about infection fatality rate, high-risk groups, herd immunity thresholds, and exit strategies. Third, I describe how reality started sinking in, with information on significant collateral damage due to the response to the pandemic, and information placing the number of deaths in context and perspective. Fourth, I present a cost-benefit analysis of the response to COVID-19 that finds lockdowns are far more harmful to public health than COVID-19 can be. I close with some suggestions for moving forward.

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202010.0330/v1

 NZ Doctors sign statement against ‘Covid fear’

26 October 2020

A group of New Zealand health practitioners have joined a growing international movement that says Covid19 is not a sufficient threat to warrant the elimination strategy and lockdowns. 

The founding signatories felt obliged by their professional ethics to express support by signing a statement of principles that assert the low risk posed by Covid19, the availability of treatment, the dangers of Government over-reaction, and primacy of the doctor-patient relationship.

Covid Plan B spokesperson Simon Thornley praised the medical practitioners for expressing their views.

“Around the world medical specialists are speaking out. They have seen the data and seen that the initial fear is now clearly unfounded. They are seeing the damage to people’s heath caused by institutional fear and compliance, and by elimination strategies and lockdowns. Unlike too many others, they are prepared to say so.

“Their statement will signal to like-minded New Zealanders in the healthcare sector that they can and should resist, and they should reassure patients and the public.”

The group says its statement was intended to break the silence. It says New Zealand registered health practitioners who want to join the movement should sign the international Great Barrington Declaration and email Covid Plan B (info@covidplanb.co.nz).

The Great Barrington Declaration is now supported by over 11,000 medical specialists and over 30,000 medical practitioners.

Contact: Simon Thornley, 021 299 1752